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Alm, James and Asmaa El-Ganainy, “Value-added Taxation and Consumption,” Tulane University Economics Working Paper 1203, July 2012

August 7, 2012 By

Does the value-added tax affect consumption?  Using a sample of fifteen EU countries over the period 1961-2005…we find that the effective VAT tax rate is negatively correlated with the level of aggregate consumption.  More precisely, a one percentage point increase in the VAT rate leads to about a one percent reduction in the level of per capita aggregate consumption.  This result is consistent across various estimators, alternative time periods, and additional explanatory variables.  To our knowledge, these estimation results are the first attempt to include explicitly and to estimate directly the effects of the VAT on consumption behavior.

Our results have the clear implication that policymakers should consider the potential impact of the VAT on households’ consumption decision when designing a VAT.  Our results are also consistent with the often-stated view of proponents of consumption taxes that taxing consumption rather than income generates more savings, and so leads to higher growth.

Of course, there are many considerations that influence any decision to tax consumption versus income.  The effects on consumption choices are clearly important, but other dimensions also matter: how are other aspects of behavior (e.g., labor supply, portfolio choice, tax evasion)affected, what are the distributional effects of different forms of taxation, how does a country make the transition from one major tax base to another, what are the administrative dimensions of taxing different tax bases, how are different levels of government affected by income versus consumption taxes, how does consumption versus income taxation affect the international decisions of firms and individuals, to name just a few.  Even so, our results demonstrate that greater use of the VAT has led, at least in EU countries to less consumption and more savings, a finding that has broader implications for the choice of a consumption tax versus an income tax.

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Sen. Orrin Hatch (Again) Miscasts VAT

August 3, 2012 By

On August 2, Sen. Hatch, in a speech on the Senate Floor, used the opportunity to again warn against a “European-style” Value Added Tax.

Notably, in the last Domenici-Rivlin testimony before the SFC, Sen. Hatch – for emphasis – rhetorically asked Sen. Domenici and Alice Rivlin if their revised proposal dropped the Deficit Reduction Sales Tax (VAT).  Alice Rivlin responded affirmatively, but made the point that both she and Sen. Domenici “still like” the DRST, but there was “no appetite” in Congress for a VAT.

Sen. Hatch and others who oppose a VAT smear it as a “European-style” tax, and only characterize it as an “add-on” tax, which it need not be!

Opponents in Congress ignore the potential opportunity for a revenue-neutral replacement of the Corporate Income Tax by a VAT to stimulate domestic growth and improve our trade balance.

The U.S. is at a competitive disadvantage in global trade for not employing a Value Added Tax.  All our trading partners use a VAT to eliminate the burden of taxation from the price/value comparison of goods crossing borders, since the VAT is subtracted from exports and added to imports.  Even China imposes a 17% VAT on everything we sell to them, and subtracts 17% from exports.  It’s not a socialist concept.  It’s just smart business.

In contrast, the U.S. clings to its high 35% CIT rate which is successfully avoided by parking profits abroad and through successful lobbying for loopholes.  The CIT is so unsuccessful that its share of government revenue has dropped from 32% in 1952 to 7.9% in 2011.  Today, that 24% drop in share would project to $674 billion in revenue.  In fact, government receipts have dropped to the point where corporations now spend $740 for avoidance (accountants, tax attorneys, lobbyists) for every $1,000 the government collects.

To replace the CIT, revenue-neutral, would take a VAT of 4.5%.  Imagine the effect on domestic job creation, if imports cost 4.5% more and exports cost 4.5% less. Imagine the effect of zero CIT on the billions of U.S. profits retained in lower CIT countries to avoid U.S. taxes?  Imagine the investment by foreign businesses, which would want to avoid their own country’s CIT?

Nothing government could do would have the significant positive effect on growth as replacing the CIT by a revenue-neutral VAT.

Prejudicial rhetoric without discussion of the merits of a revenue-neutral VAT to replace the CIT is against the country’s best interest.

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Domenici-Rivlin Ditch DRST (VAT), testimony before Senate Finance Committee, 06/19/12

June 20, 2012 By

Sen. Pete Domenici and Dr. Alice Rivlin appeared before the Senate Finance Committee in open session to discuss their plan for sweeping tax reform.  They emphasized the overarching point that additional revenue is needed to reduce the deficit.  After all prudent cuts are made to Medicare, and after means-testing Social Security, there will still be a need for additional revenue to meet the obligations of a growing retired population.

Senator Hatch asked for confirmation that the revised D-R plan as now presented would replace their original element of a Deficit Reduction Sales Tax, a VAT, with an increased Corporate Income Tax (CIT).  Dr. Rivlin confirmed in response, but added that they “both still like” the idea of the DRST, however there was “no appetite” in Congress for a VAT.

The fact that no one in the Senate has the courage to back a Value Added Tax is at once understandable and regrettable.  Introducing a VAT…even dedicated to deficit reduction…would create yet another new tax in addition to the CIT.  Senators would have a hard time convincing their constituents that this medicine would be in their best interest.  It just would not be politically viable.

The way to sell a VAT rests with outright replacement of the CIT, which is a broken cog in our tax system.

In the process of avoiding taxation, corporations employ accountants, tax attorneys, and lobbyists to find and create loopholes that will minimize their costs.  These specialists are hugely successful, particularly for the large multi-national corporations.  As a result, the CIT is riddled with many exceptions —for agricultural subsidies, off-shore profits, American cruise lines, literally hundreds upon hundreds.

The result is a complicated maze that only a team of specialists can navigate. And, who knows what’s right? Neither individuals nor corporations know for sure whether their taxes paid are more or less than they could or should be.  As Will Rogers said, “The income tax has made more liars out of the American people than golf has.” Ultimately, this crazy quilt of code has undermined trust in government.

The CIT has long been criticized for being too high and uncompetitive.  This is why our multi-nationals tend to park profits in countries with lower tax rates. Some multi-national corporations push the limits by incorporating overseas profit centers that are no more than a mailbox in a foreign land. Such legal non-compliance may be an ethical and moral question, but it makes for good after-tax profits.

The fundamental purpose of our tax system should be to efficiently collect revenue in a way that is equitable and minimally inhibits economic growth and domestic employment.  William Simon, who served as Secretary of the Treasury in the Nixon and Ford administrations, said disparaging of our tax code: “The nation should have a tax system that looks like someone designed it on purpose.”

Look at how unsuccessful the CIT really is.  Collections peaked as a percentage of federal tax receipts in 1952 at 32.1%.  Receipts averaged 21.3% of total revenues in the 1960’s, 16.1% in the 1970’s, 9.6% in the 1980’s, 10.5% in the 1990’s, 10.4% in the 2000’s.  In 2010, the CIT contributed 8.9% and in 2011 only 7.9%.

A 2011 study by Citizens for Tax Justice revealed that the 280 most profitable corporations sheltered nearly half their profits from federal income taxes in the prior three years; their average effective tax rate was 18.5% over the three years, about half the statutory 35% rate; 78 of these companies paid zero federal income tax in one or more of those years.

Corporations are so successful at gaming the CIT, that taxes paid have fallen to the point where their compliance expenses including accountants, lawyers and lobbyists cost these corporations $740 for every $1000 the government collects.

If federal receipts from corporations have declined from one-third of federal revenues and now amount to less than 10%, why continue a tax system that is so easily thwarted and inefficient?

Why not replace the CIT with a smarter tax, a VAT to better compete in world trade and to assure compliance?

VAT is already accepted and proven.  This tax system was specifically created for world trade and is employed by all our trading partners and over 150 countries.  It is a consumption tax levied at each stage of production and in total is equivalent to a retail sales tax.

What makes the VAT important for trade is its border adjustability, meaning it is subtracted from exports and added to imports.  This feature removes the variable of the burden of government from the cost comparison of goods in international trade.

For example, when a car is shipped from Germany to China, the 19% German VAT is deducted from the price of the vehicle, and the 17% VAT in China is added to the price of the car when it is imported there. But, when a U.S. car ships overseas, there is no such deduction for the cost government (the CIT), and a VAT tax is added to the price by the importing country.  Here in the U.S., there is no VAT added to imports.  Without our own VAT, there is a large price wedge against U.S. products at home and abroad.

Our largest trading partners add the following VAT cost to goods they import from us.  The range is from 5% VAT in Canada and Japan to over 17% on average from the others: Canada 5%, China 17%, France 19.6%, Germany 19%, Italy 20%, Japan 5%, Korea 10%, Mexico 16%, Spain 16%, United Kingdom 17.5%.

These countries have a CIT in addition to a VAT.  But, that does not make sense for the U.S.  Why just add another tax onto the CIT, which we already know is a broken system?  How would replacing the CIT by a VAT affect us?

  • We would very likely see a strong economic growth spurt and more jobs.
  • U.S. goods would be more competitive with imports here, since imports would be equally taxed by the VAT.
  • U.S. exports would be more competitive, as the VAT, unlike the CIT, would be subtracted from exports.
  • There would be no double-taxation of dividends.  Because corporate profits would not be taxed, only dividends would be taxed to individuals when they receive them.
  • U.S. multi-nationals…which now park profits in lower-taxed countries…would bring their capital back to the U.S. for investment. The U.S. with NO corporate income tax would be the best country for recognizing your profits.  Foreign corporations would likewise shift profits to the U.S. for investment.

 If VAT is so good, why don’t we have it?  Again, VAT would be a new tax, and politicians fear proposing taxes, even if it is good medicine.  Tax is a four-letter word to politicians.  But, we don’t have to follow other countries and make our VAT an “add-on” tax.  Our VAT can be a dollar-for-dollar replacement for other taxes.  We can replace all corporate tax revenues by an 8% VAT, including rebates to protect individual tax filers with low income.  Companies would save substantially on their compliance expenses, and that savings could go to stockholders or consumers in the form of lower prices. Companies would no longer have the CIT to dodge, so they would no longer need a bevy of expensive lobbyists to push for loopholes (unless we made the mistake of permitting exceptions to the VAT, which would be like letting the camel’s nose under the tent).

Want to see the idea considered of replacing the CIT by a VAT?  Contact your representatives in the House and Senate. Tell them you would like the U.S. to get a fair shake in international trade.  Tell them replacing the Corporate Income Tax by a Value Added Tax will make the U.S. more competitive and create jobs.  Tell them you will not vote against them for proposing a revenue-neutral VAT to replace the Corporate Income Tax.

Chances are, some of our representatives really get the concept and would support a VAT, but they need to know you will support them.

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Gale, William G., “Inoculate the Budget from Health Care Reform,” TaxPolicyCenter.org, 05/08/12

May 13, 2012 By

“The medium- and long-term deficits that will result from debt-financed health care spending will inexorably dampen economic performance. They will sap up capital, reduce our ability to grow, burden future generations with debt, and perhaps even influence the military and diplomatic stance of the country. We cannot, and indeed should not, wait for effective health care reform to rein in the budget deficit. Health reform is a process; it will take time to get it right as we learn about what works and what doesn’t. We won’t get it right on the first shot.

As we work to restrain health care cost growth, we must, at the same time, inoculate the future deficit from the inevitable failures of health reform.

We can do this by choosing a federal health care spending level and stipulating that any spending above that amount must be financed on a current basis with a tax. For example, if federal health care spending were allowed to grow at the rate of GDP plus 0.5 percent (a rate proposed by both President Obama and Rep. Ryan), any health spending in excess of that growth rate would be financed with tax revenues in the next year.

Suppose we used a value-added tax (VAT) to finance excessive health spending; using a VAT in this way would accomplish several goals and simultaneously mitigate general concerns about the VAT. Most importantly, the deficit could be controlled; the grinding economic effects of persistent long-term deficits could be avoided even before society resolves the economically difficult and politically treacherous questions raised by trends in health costs.

In addition, the proposal would link health care spending and the means to pay for such spending. When considering whether health spending should rise, voters would have an explicit choice between higher spending and higher taxes on the one hand or lower spending and lower taxes on the other.”

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/url.cfm?ID=1001608

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Barro, Josh, “Soak the Old? Why a VAT Is Distributionally Fair, Forbes.com, 05/03/12

May 5, 2012 By

“I have three responses to the regressivity complaint. The first is that a VAT is regressive, but not as regressive as commonly thought. Part of the reason that a VAT appears regressive is that it is paid at the time of consumption, so it appears that savers are avoiding the VAT. In fact, saving only delays your VAT burden; savers accrue tax liabilities that are payable at the time of consumption…

…(T)he Tax Policy Center shows how a VAT burden is distributed when taking account of the fact that a VAT burden attaches itself to investments, even if it is not paid in the current period. They find that a 5 percent VAT with a comprehensive base costs 5.7 percent of income for those in the bottom quintile and 4.3 percent for those in the top quintile.

Secondly, VAT is just one component of the overall tax code. The regressivity of the VAT can, and should, be offset in part by greater progressivity in other areas of the code. Some of the proceeds of a substantial VAT should go toward progressive cuts in the payroll tax or policies that exclude a significantly larger share of households from the personal income tax. Expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit would be another possibility.

Third, the tax code should get more regressive as government spending rises as a share of GDP. Regressive taxes tend to be more efficient taxes, and efficiency in tax collection becomes more important as the government needs to collect more revenue. The rising tax share of GDP also partly reflects increased spending on means-tested entitlements, which is progressive. Even financing such programs with regressive taxes is progressive on net.

The transition complaint is that introducing a new VAT amounts to a one-time tax on existing assets. Think of it this way. Imagine that a country used to have only one tax, an income tax, and then abolished it in favor of a VAT. The taxes might have the same rate, but a person who had saved lots of money would end up paying twice: income tax at the time he earned and saved, and then VAT when he finally spent.

In a vacuum, this would indeed be an important equity concern with the VAT. But we are not in a vacuum. Instead, we are in a situation where people in retirement are claiming entitlement benefits whose cost now far outstrips their dedicated revenue sources. Today’s retirees got a great deal, working when payroll taxes were low and collecting benefits whose costs are high. And the political consensus is that they are untouchable: Social Security and Medicare will have to be fixed by the young paying higher taxes and taking benefit cuts.”

 http://www.forbes.com/sites/joshbarro/2012/05/03/soak-the-old-why-a-vat-is-distributionally-fair/

 

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Hollings, Sen. Fritz, “Making Romney Electable,” HuffingtonPost.com, 04/25/12

April 25, 2012 By

“The voters are frustrated. The country is fighting in all the wars but globalization. Globalization is nothing more than a trade war with production looking for a cheaper country to produce. Every country develops an industrial policy to protect its economy. Our industrial policy is to call for “free trade” and have Corporate America develop China’s closed market. The United States needs to develop an industrial policy to make Corporate America want to invest and create jobs in our country.

Fundamental to an industrial policy is a Value Added Tax, which is rebatable on export. The corporate tax is not. A U.S. manufacturer exporting to China is taxed twice: the 35 percent corporate tax and a 17 percent VAT when the product reaches China. But U.S. manufacturers in China import their product into the U.S. tax-free. We are not only building China’s economy, but Germany’s. The BMW plant in South Carolina doesn’t make the engine or technological parts in South Carolina. They are produced in Germany, shipped at 3 percent cost; assembled at 3 percent cost and BMW produces a motor vehicle in South Carolina 13 percent cheaper than Detroit. Using its 19 percent VAT, Germany probably has as many manufacturing jobs in the U.S. as it does in Germany — which we welcome.

The people are tired of the campaign. All they have heard for a year is that both candidates are for jobs, but the plants keep closing in their states. They have caught on to ten year plans to balance the budget; to do filibusters to fundraise; taxing the rich to balance the budget; appeals to their pride and charades to create jobs. Candidates and media worry about Medicare that goes broke in 2024 and Social Security that goes broke in 2033 but not the country that’s already broke. The people are frustrated because the country is fighting all the wars but globalization. They are looking for the candidate to do something real to create jobs and pay for government. Replacing the 35 percent Corporate Tax with a 6 percent VAT does something real. The VAT has no loopholes; gives instant tax reform; produces billions to eliminate deficits and creates millions of jobs.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sen-ernest-frederick-hollings/making-romney-electable_b_1453065.html?utm_source=Alert-blogger&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Email%2BNotifications

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Lind, Michael, “A Radical Tax Solution,” Salon.com, 04/24/12

April 24, 2012 By

“Michael Graetz of Columbia Law School points out that “the United States is a relatively low-tax country, but not with respect to income taxes … We typically collect about 12 percent of GDP in corporate and individual income taxes, while the OECD nations average about 13 percent. The biggest difference is that most other nations rely much more heavily on consumption taxes than we do: 11 percent of GDP in the OECD compared to about 5 percent in the United States. Indeed, we are the only OECD nation that does not impose a national level tax on sales of goods and services.”

This raises the possibility of a fourth option for American tax reform, distinct from the phony centrism of Simpson-Bowles (closing loopholes while lowering rates for the rich and cutting entitlements for the majority), radical conservatism (the single flat tax) and conventional progressivism (relying for more revenue chiefly on higher personal income taxes combined with bigger tax credits). The fourth option would reject the goal of revenue neutrality and acknowledge that, in a nation with an aging population, federal taxes can and should be permanently increased to pay for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. (These, like the rest of the American healthcare sector,  need to be made solvent by price reduction and price regulation, not rationing). Much or most of the needed additional revenue should come from the adoption by the federal government of a VAT.  A federal VAT’s revenues could be shared with state and local governments, partly replacing existing sales taxes.

 http://www.salon.com/2012/04/24/a_radical_tax_solution/singleton/

 

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Porter, Eduardo, “A Tax Code of Politics, Not Practicality,” NYTimes.com, 04/10/2012

April 10, 2012 By

“Our byzantine tax code is built upon a longstanding political deal: Democrats wanted a tax scale with higher rates for richer Americans to finance social programs aimed at the poor and the middle class. Republicans countered by pushing for tax exceptions, exclusions and deductions that shielded the incomes of the rich from the taxman and reduced government revenue.

This compromise has left us with a loophole-riddled code that isn’t very good at raising money. The richest 1 percent of Americans, who make $1.5 million on average, pay 28 percent of their income in federal taxes, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. That’s way below the top rate of 35 percent. The rest of us also pay little. The bottom 85 percent of taxpayers have an average federal tax rate of 12 percent. The poorest 25 percent pay less than 1 percent of their income — $77 a family, on average.

Compared to other developed countries, the United States doesn’t collect much tax at all. Tax revenue at all levels of government adds up to less than 25 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product, putting us behind every other rich country and even some poor ones. Among the 34 nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, only Mexico and Chile collect less in taxes. The average across the O.E.C.D. is 9 percentage points higher.”…

“…(F)ederal tax revenue has not surpassed 21 percent of the nation’s output. Last year it was under 15 percent. Not only is our tax code bad at raising money, it is also plagued with perverse incentives that, added up across the population, can push us to distort the economy and slow it down”….

“ …What would a better tax system look like? Most other rich countries have one. While each country has a different version, they share a core feature: they raise a lot of money taxing people’s consumption, at the point of sale.

Consumption taxes create fewer perverse incentives because taxing what people buy doesn’t affect their choices about work and investment. If anything, such a system might promote savings, generally good for growth. These taxes are also easy to collect and hard to evade. They don’t add complexity to your tax return. Because they produce few perverse incentives, they can be used to raise a lot of money.

Consumption taxes are supported by a vast majority of economists. They underpin Western Europe’s welfare systems, which are based on the proposition that all citizens are entitled to similar income support and services to guarantee a minimum standard of living, and that everybody should pay proportionately for them. Denmark and Sweden collect about 10 percent of their gross domestic product with a value-added tax, a modern tax on consumption.

In the United States, by contrast, states raise only 2.2 percent of G.D.P. through various sales taxes.  There is no federal consumption tax at all.

A federal consumption tax has been proposed more than once. A report last year by the Congressional Research Service found that for every 1 percent levied in a value-added tax, the federal government would raise up to $55 billion a year. This new source of money could help change the political deal underpinning our tax system and pave the way to cull loopholes and reduce our top tax rates.”

 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/11/business/economy/a-tax-code-of-politics-not-practicality.html

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Hollings, Sen. Fritz, “Untying the Knot,” HuffingtonPost.com, 04/09/12

April 9, 2012 By

“There is an immediate solution to deficit spending and creating jobs — just replace the 35 percent Corporate Tax with a 6 percent VAT. The 2011 Corporate Tax produced revenues of $181.1 billion. A 2011 6 percent VAT would have produced $728 billion. This will cut taxes, eliminate loopholes, give instant tax reform, promote exports, free up $2 trillion in offshore profits for Corporate America to create jobs in the United States, provide billions to avoid deficits, and create millions of jobs.

Everyone in Congress is for these initiatives, but not one of the 535 members will introduce the VAT solution, nor will President Obama. Why not? Because Corporate America doesn’t want to increase the cost of their China exports to the United States. U.S. exports to China are taxed twice: the 35 percent corporate tax and a 17 percent VAT when exports reach China. China’s exports to the United States are tax free. 141 countries compete in globalization with a VAT that is rebated on exports. Wall Street, the big banks, and Corporate America are the biggest contributors to the President and Congress. Contributions for reelection in Washington come before the nation’s economy. Talk shows and the political pundits don’t mention the VAT solution because the press and media are owned or in bed with Corporate America.

In 2006, the Princeton economist, Alan Blinder, estimated that for the next decade off-shoring would cost the U.S. Economy an average of 3 to 4 million jobs per year. We are off-shoring jobs faster than we can create them. The recession ended over 2 ½ years ago and we wonder why the recovery is anemic. The economy would come alive by replacing the 35 percent corporate tax with a 6 percent VAT.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sen-ernest-frederick-hollings/untying-the-knot_b_1412370.html

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If Obamacare Is Overturned

March 28, 2012 By

The Supreme Court may decide that individual mandates for insurance purchases oversteps the authority of the federal government.  If Obamacare is overturned, there is a better alternative — single-payer in the shape of Dr. Zeke Emanuel’s plan for a dedicated VAT paying for vouchers to be used in an exchange. The VAT tax, dedicated to health insurance, would have precedent for the Supreme Court, e.g., the Social Security tax.

With a dedicated VAT tax, the citizenry would have a measure of health care costs vs. benefits that should work to restrain additional demands for more expensive tests and services. Corporations would be on an even footing in that the amount of medical insurance would no longer be a competitive benefit for employees.

Of great importance, the VAT burden would saddle imports equally with the burden of healthcare, and exports would not carry the burden. VAT is the border-adjustable tax for this era of globalization, i.e., added to imports and subtracted from exports. That is why it is used by all of our trading partners — to our competitive disadvantage.

Dr. Emanuel, Rahm’s brother, published a book detailing the plan, “Universal Healthcare Guaranteed.” Links to information about the Emanuel plan and VAT can be found at: http://wp.me/p18NCA-1o

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